The North Star Portfolio
Eight researched sources of return, working together.
Make 18% a year trading ETFs.*
Run a smart portfolio without making investing a second job.
Your membership brings together the North Star Portfolio, the dashboard that helps you run it, and direct support from the team that built it. Everything works together so you can follow the process correctly and stay with it over time.
The portfolio dashboard
Exact positions, trade sizes, and alerts. About one trade a week on average.
Support from the team
One-on-one setup and ongoing help when you need it.
Meet the North Star Portfolio.
A complete investment portfolio you run in your own brokerage account.
You trade just six tickers: SPY, TLT, GLD, FXE, DBC, and VXX. We handle every signal and tell you exactly what to do. Together, they give the North Star Portfolio several sources of return, helping it pursue more consistent outperformance across changing market conditions.
Different markets. Clear rules. One portfolio built for the long run.
Read the full research
Set it up once. Then follow the alerts.
The portfolio dashboard makes the North Star Portfolio easy to run. Set it up once, then it monitors every position and sends an alert with exact trade instructions when action is needed.
1. Set up your portfolio.
Choose how much money you want to invest. The North Star Portfolio gives you the exact trades and position sizes. Place them in your brokerage account and you are done.
- Enter the amount you want to invest
- Follow the exact trade instructions
- Finish setup in less than five minutes
2. Get an alert when it is time to trade.
The North Star Portfolio watches every position and every rule. If nothing needs to change, you do nothing. When action is needed, you receive an alert.
- Portfolio monitored for you
- Email alerts when something changes
- No charts or news to watch
3. Follow the trade instructions.
Open the alert, review the exact trade, and place it in your account. Most changes take less than five minutes.
- What to buy or sell
- How many shares to trade
- A clear record of your portfolio
That's it. You're now running a professional grade portfolio.
Get started for free
The North Star Portfolio outperformed SPY from 2011 to 2025.
From 2011 to 2025, the North Star Portfolio produced nearly twice the wealth* with smaller drawdowns.
Final value
$1.22MNorth Star Portfolio
$682KSPY
Annual return
18.40%North Star Portfolio
13.87%SPY
Max drawdown
-20.10%North Star Portfolio
-33.76%SPY
Annual volatility
15.13%North Star Portfolio
17.28%SPY
*Historical simulation from January 4, 2011 to October 17, 2025. Results include stated assumptions and do not represent the performance of every member account. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Review the full research and risk disclosure before investing.
See how your capital could grow with the North Star Portfolio.
Choose your starting capital and time horizon to see the potential extra profit from the North Star Portfolio compared with the market under the assumptions below.
Your extra profit with the North Star Portfolio$64,793
more than the market over five years, starting with $100,000 and after subscription fees.
Profit with the North Star Portfolio$125,844Ending balance: $225,844
Profit with the market$61,051Ending balance: $161,051
Illustration only, not a forecast. Assumes 18.4% annual growth for the North Star Portfolio, 10% for the market, no deposits or withdrawals, and $948 in fees deducted at the end of each year. Taxes, trading costs, spreads, and account differences are not included.
Try the North Star Portfolio free for seven days.
Set it up with the team, follow the alerts, and see if it’s right for you.
Member supportSean, Ned, and Sascha
OnlineToday, 11:02 AM
Sean · Predicting Alpha
Any time before the close. The alert lists the exact share counts.
Perfect, you're all set. Message us any time.
When something is unclear, talk to the people who built it.
Your subscription includes a one-on-one setup call and ongoing help by live chat, email, or video. When something is unclear, you can talk to Sean or another member of the team who knows the portfolio.
Set it up with us
On a one-on-one call, we help you choose your starting capital, place the opening trades, and confirm the portfolio is set up correctly.
Understand what changed
Get help reading an alert, checking your positions, or understanding the portfolio's behavior.
Stay with the process
Ask questions during quiet periods, drawdowns, or unfamiliar market conditions.
Support covers using the North Star Portfolio and understanding its published research. It does not include personalized financial advice.
A long-term portfolio for people with more to do than watch markets.
The North Star Portfolio works best for investors who can stay with the process when markets get difficult.
This is a good fit if…
- You have meaningful capital to put to work for years
- You want clear rules instead of constant decisions
- You value strong growth and smaller losses
- You want to keep control of your account
This is not a good fit if…
- You want frequent trades or daily excitement
- You prefer to pick every position yourself
- You abandon a strategy during a slow period
- You want an advisor or robot to place every trade for you.
Hear directly from traders
From people who have seen life-changing results as a member.**
Alec RodriguesPosted on Google
“Awesome platform. Amazed how it continues to improve, too. … The educational videos helped me level up rather quickly. … the discord alone is worth the cost. Smart, inquisitive people there with appreciation for and understanding of nuance.”
Pedro ThemidoPosted on Google
“Predicting Alpha allows you to treat your trading like a business, without emotion, with quantified risk. It also allows you to understand where your potential edge might come from.”
Benjamin CanbyPosted on Google
“…the Predicting Alpha terminal is one of the best places to find a vol edge. The community is also filled with a ton of smart people you can learn a lot from.”
Varun KandothPosted on Google
“PA provides people with abundant resources for education on quantitative trading and actually trading with edge. … If this was a quant team, PA covers the role of quant research +developer and you can focus on your trading.”
Edvardas GliosasPosted on Google
“Good place to learn and improve options trading skills.”
Jay SteinmanPosted on Google
“This is a fantastic data platform, education, and community… The education is top notch for anyone from beginner to advanced, and really focuses on the right aspects of how to think about trading. … These guys are the real deal!”
DagurasuPosted on Google
“The PA terminal has been the game changer in my … trading journey, because it has everything to win in the Market. All features in the PA Terminal are there for you if you want to be a Positive Expected Value trader, like no other platform can provide.”
Alec RodriguesPosted on Google
“Awesome platform. Amazed how it continues to improve, too. … The educational videos helped me level up rather quickly. … the discord alone is worth the cost. Smart, inquisitive people there with appreciation for and understanding of nuance.”
Pedro ThemidoPosted on Google
“Predicting Alpha allows you to treat your trading like a business, without emotion, with quantified risk. It also allows you to understand where your potential edge might come from.”
Benjamin CanbyPosted on Google
“…the Predicting Alpha terminal is one of the best places to find a vol edge. The community is also filled with a ton of smart people you can learn a lot from.”
Varun KandothPosted on Google
“PA provides people with abundant resources for education on quantitative trading and actually trading with edge. … If this was a quant team, PA covers the role of quant research +developer and you can focus on your trading.”
Edvardas GliosasPosted on Google
“Good place to learn and improve options trading skills.”
Jay SteinmanPosted on Google
“This is a fantastic data platform, education, and community… The education is top notch for anyone from beginner to advanced, and really focuses on the right aspects of how to think about trading. … These guys are the real deal!”
DagurasuPosted on Google
“The PA terminal has been the game changer in my … trading journey, because it has everything to win in the Market. All features in the PA Terminal are there for you if you want to be a Positive Expected Value trader, like no other platform can provide.”
Zamir ChowdhuryPosted on Google
“If you want to save time analyzing data, this is the place to be. Why bother with an excel sheet when you can have instant access right here. … Very easy to use. Clean user interface. I am very satisfied with the PA Terminal.”
Daniel GriptonPosted on Google
“…Sean and the team are constantly improving and updating the platform. It just keeps getting better! … there is a community of members to talk with, bounce trade ideas off of, and get live feedback on your methodology. Can't recommend Predicting Alpha enough for those who are done yoloing and want to learn how to actually trade.”
SantanaPosted on Google
“…empowering traders to make informed, data-driven trades. Whether you're … just starting out like I was, the Predicting Alpha Terminal offers all the information you could ever need to help you implement sound strategies and achieve your trading goals.”
Sean McCartneyPosted on Google
“I am very satisfied with the PA Terminal. It gives me access to data, only industry professionals have access to. If you want a shot at making any significant money as a retail trader, this is your community.”
Mauricio EspinoPosted on Google
“Predicting Alpha is undoubtedly one of the best resources a person can use to delve into the trading world. … Sean is very hands-on and he tries his best to dumb down complicated subject so others can learn. … Predicting Alpha has paved the way on what retail trader needs to do in order to come out on top.”
Shertwa FreemePosted on Google
“…in trading, as well as anything in life, there is a gap that exists between where you are, and where you are trying to get to, and I love Predicting Alpha because it bridges that gap.”
Hunter WhisenantPosted on Google
“Predicting Alpha is a great place for advanced traders, beginners, and anyone in between trying to get into becoming a more serious trader and improve their knowledge every day!”
Zamir ChowdhuryPosted on Google
“If you want to save time analyzing data, this is the place to be. Why bother with an excel sheet when you can have instant access right here. … Very easy to use. Clean user interface. I am very satisfied with the PA Terminal.”
Daniel GriptonPosted on Google
“…Sean and the team are constantly improving and updating the platform. It just keeps getting better! … there is a community of members to talk with, bounce trade ideas off of, and get live feedback on your methodology. Can't recommend Predicting Alpha enough for those who are done yoloing and want to learn how to actually trade.”
SantanaPosted on Google
“…empowering traders to make informed, data-driven trades. Whether you're … just starting out like I was, the Predicting Alpha Terminal offers all the information you could ever need to help you implement sound strategies and achieve your trading goals.”
Sean McCartneyPosted on Google
“I am very satisfied with the PA Terminal. It gives me access to data, only industry professionals have access to. If you want a shot at making any significant money as a retail trader, this is your community.”
Mauricio EspinoPosted on Google
“Predicting Alpha is undoubtedly one of the best resources a person can use to delve into the trading world. … Sean is very hands-on and he tries his best to dumb down complicated subject so others can learn. … Predicting Alpha has paved the way on what retail trader needs to do in order to come out on top.”
Shertwa FreemePosted on Google
“…in trading, as well as anything in life, there is a gap that exists between where you are, and where you are trying to get to, and I love Predicting Alpha because it bridges that gap.”
Hunter WhisenantPosted on Google
“Predicting Alpha is a great place for advanced traders, beginners, and anyone in between trying to get into becoming a more serious trader and improve their knowledge every day!”
Seven days free. A real person helps you get set up.
Both plans include the full portfolio, exact trades and sizes, email alerts, published research, weekly letters, live support, and a one-on-one setup call.
Monthly
Freefor 7 days
then $99 / month
Pay month by month. Cancel anytime.
No charge today · cancel anytime
Includes:
- Full North Star Portfolio
- Exact trades and position sizes
- Alerts, research, and support
Most popular
Annual
Freefor 7 days
then $79 / month, billed annually
Save $240 a year. Cancel anytime.
No charge today · cancel anytime
- Locked annual rate
- $948 after the free trial
Everything in Monthly:
- Full North Star Portfolio
- Exact trades and position sizes
- Alerts, research, and support
Frequently asked questions.
A rules-based portfolio built from five ETFs plus a volatility hedge. It tells you exactly what to buy, sell, or hold, and how much, so you never have to guess.
*Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor. See the full Risk Disclosure before making any investment decision.
**Testimonials reflect individual experiences and may not be representative of all users. Results are not typical and are not a guarantee of future performance.