UPDATE: Top Trades Pick For You On Our New Home Page + More

Our new homepage is launched and it shows you the top stocks and ETFs for selling options.   New features overview Click here to watch a video demo of the new homepage With the release of these new features, the workflow at Predicting Alpha is now complete. You now have every single tool you need to […]

Trading Methodology Update + New Metrics for Finding Inflated Option Premiums

We are very excited to release 5 new metrics that will help you measure the Variance Risk Premium for any ticker. Along with this update comes a methodology that is based on building a solid foundation for your portfolio, then spending time looking for unique situations that offer outsized returns. Some background information on this […]

The Key to Profitable Option Selling: A Guide to Exploiting Variance Risk Premium

Introduction to the Variance Risk Premium The variance risk premium is the observed historical difference between implied and realized volatility. In simpler terms, it’s the premium options trade at above their fair value. Selling options can be a profitable strategy because they offer buyers unlimited profits and limited downside. This attractive return profile means the […]

Earnings is Over! BABA Case Study

A while ago, we interviewed MIT researcher Tim De Silva, who found that selling options after an earnings event tends to make money, because IV crush takes some time to materialize fully. Since BABA had just released earnings this morning, this stock is definitely one where we might be interested in selling vol. Before we […]

What Is Predicting Alpha?

When I first learned about options, I, like many other options traders I see on Reddit, would more or less blindly sell covered calls, cash-secured puts, and credit spreads on high IV stocks. Like many other traders I saw on Reddit, I lost a ton of money. However, I got lucky. Several years ago, I […]